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When it comes to design the overall strategy, we all use to strive in order to predict the future. Uncertainty is the principal barrier that we must overcome. What we do know for sure is that if we manage to anticipate the future, we will be much qualified to face challenges at all business spheres. In politics, for its part, challenges use to be more demanding.

 In politics, scenario planning tends to be more difficult to apply than in business. Politics revolves around social behavior. It incorporates more unpredictable variables such as the rise of a dictator capable of destabilizing an entire region. No one ever thought ten years ago, for instance, that Hugo Chavez would change not only the course of politics and collective thinking in Venezuela, but also in many countries of South America. A political strategist can suppose dictatorial behaviors in the long-term, but never the ideology behind the mind of a leader and its effects on society. There are always others variables influencing both the political context and its protagonists such as taxes, violence, and unemployment; and those macro variables such as the very economy, environment, technology, etc.

 Scenario planning will always have another connotation on politics as long as it depends largely on social behavior. It demands further degree of imagination and intuition. Even so, I think that politicians and their strategists walk onto complete darkness when it comes to predict 5 years ahead.

 In business instead, a hypothetic scenario is much easier to calculate; physical, natural and economic behaviors are more predictable than social’s. They are the epicenter of any strategy based on scenario planning. Economy for instance, leaves some traces that use to appear cyclically. Shell anticipated energetic crisis by taking into account natural patterns.  Although scenario planning for business also analyses human behavior, it will always have a wider array of alternatives to get more accurate results.

Recently someone asked me which do I think will be key to winning the 2014 election online? I think no one is able to predict such a thing accurately. I believe that long-term technology in the world lasts one day. Its dynamism, innovation and accelerate growth will not allow anticipate its future, much less in terms of politics.  

 From Obama’s campaign, all politicians are going to embrace social networks so they will have nothing extraordinary. As usual, the winner will be who is more synchronized with the needs of people, and knows how to deliver his or her message by means of the right vehicle of communication. Which is going to be the right one? I guess that by 2012 video will likely be the most persuasive and massive tool. Surely, there will be new technological platforms to enrich quality and coverage. Improvements in cell phones might get closer to these technological challenges. If so, you will watch some candidates daily speaking to you through your cell. It will be up to you pick up the cell or not.

 Today I am greatly proud of Colombia’s technological advances. Finally, a group of young strategic political advisors designed an admirable web site. Sergio Fajardo is the first Colombian presidential candidate who understood -before his opponents- the importance of social networks to know his objective public and to send out his message to them.   

Sergio Fajardo is a young political leader running for the presidency of Colombia 2010 – 2014. As young, he realized he should make the most out of his joviality to aim his campaign toward youth. He began using tools such as Facebook, Flickr, and Youtube, as well as a well-organized web site to persuade this target.  www.sergiofajardo.com is a space in which people can follow up all his campaign activities. People have multiples alternatives to keep them well-informed.

To date, this candidate accumulates just about 6000 Facebook supporters in less than one month; 121 Youtube videos, each one with 500 viewers on average; and about 1000 pictures on Flickr. Fajardo’s web site also has interactive and creative windows to follow his footprint throughout his political journey. All together promises a spectacular 2010 presidential race.

Believe or not, this is the first time Colombians we are appreciating this tools in the political arena. Many young people are now understanding and embracing them. Consequently, Fajardo is persuading important voters like no other candidate does. Here you can see the latest polls in which Sergio Fajardo is broadly winning. Only the current Colombian President will surely be the Fajardo’s direct opponent by 2010. The President will have to refresh the way of work campaigns if he expects to be reelected. Fajardo is meanwhile walking round the entire country accompanied by a camera and a computer. Just the outcomes on May 26 of 2010 will tell us if Colombia were prepared to apply all this tools. So far, it seems that it works.